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在双循环新发展格局背景下，基于全球价值链视角研究国内国际循环与国内、全球价值链间的内在逻辑关系具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。本文基于多区域投入产出模型构建全球价值链分解框架，利用OECD数据库相关数据，从多个维度考察了2000—2020年中国双循环的就业效应。研究发现：(1)中国就业基本上形成了“国内循环为主，国际循环赋能”的发展格局，经济规模扩张是拉动中国就业增长的主因，就业强度降低是抑制就业增长的首要因素。(2)在国内循环中，居民消费和固定资本形成是拉动国内循环就业的重要引擎，两者贡献率合计超过80%;国内循环拉动的就业由初级产业向制造业和服务业转移的趋势显著，国内循环的就业质量持续提升。(3)在国际循环中，美国和日本是拉动中国隐含就业量最多的国家，不过其影响力不断下降，反而是发展中国家的影响力不断上升；国际循环拉动的就业主要是通过单一价值链和简单价值链驱动，近年来复杂价值链拉动的隐含就业增长明显，中国参与全球价值链的位置有了较大提升。本文的研究结果拓展了双循环测度分析的研究视角，可为构建双循环新发展格局提供量化依据和决策参考，对我国如何实现更充分和更高质量的就业具有重要启示意义。
Abstract：Under the dual circulation new development pattern, from the perspective of the global value chain, studying the intrinsic logical relationship between domestic and international circulation and domestic and global value chains(GVCs) has significant academic value and practical significance. This study constructs a GVCs decomposition framework based on the Multi-regional Input-output(MRIO) model, by using the relevant data from the OECD database to analyze China's employment effects of dual circulation across multiple dimensions from 2000 to 2020. The study finds that:(1) China's employment has basically formed a development pattern of “mainly domestic circulation, international circulation empowerment”. Economic scale expansion is the main factor driving China's employment growth, while declining employment intensity serves as the primary factor.(2) Within domestic circulation, household consumption and fixed capital formation are important engines driving domestic circulation employment, the contribution of them over 80%. Employment driven by domestic circulation has shifted markedly from primary industries to manufacturing and services, accompanied by continuous improvements in employment quality.(3) In international circulation, the United States and Japan are the countries that driving the most embodied employment in China, though their influence is diminishing, while developing countries are continues to rise. Employment linked to international circulation is primarily driven by single GVC and simple GVC, embodied employment growth driven by complex GVC has shown significant growth in recent years, and China's position in participating in GVCs has been greatly improved. The research results of this article expand the research perspective of dual circulation measurement analysis, which can provide quantitative basis and decision-making reference for constructing a new development pattern of dual circulation, and have important implications for how China can achieve more comprehensive and higher quality employment.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F249.2
引用信息:
[1]宁亚东,刘馨潞,戴艳娟.全球价值链视角下中国双循环就业效应的测度与分析[J].政治经济学季刊,2025,4(02):219-246.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目“双循环背景下经济就业减排的协调机制及优化路径研究”(72373016)的资助
2025-03-20
2025
2025-04-12
2025
1
2025-06-15
2025-06-15