宁亚东,刘馨潞,戴艳娟

• 1:大连理工大学能源与动力学院
• 2:广东外语外贸大学经贸学院

摘要(Abstract)：

在双循环新发展格局背景下，基于全球价值链视角研究国内国际循环与国内、全球价值链间的内在逻辑关系具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。本文基于多区域投入产出模型构建全球价值链分解框架，利用OECD数据库相关数据，从多个维度考察了2000—2020年中国双循环的就业效应。研究发现：(1)中国就业基本上形成了“国内循环为主，国际循环赋能”的发展格局，经济规模扩张是拉动中国就业增长的主因，就业强度降低是抑制就业增长的首要因素。(2)在国内循环中，居民消费和固定资本形成是拉动国内循环就业的重要引擎，两者贡献率合计超过80%;国内循环拉动的就业由初级产业向制造业和服务业转移的趋势显著，国内循环的就业质量持续提升。(3)在国际循环中，美国和日本是拉动中国隐含就业量最多的国家，不过其影响力不断下降，反而是发展中国家的影响力不断上升；国际循环拉动的就业主要是通过单一价值链和简单价值链驱动，近年来复杂价值链拉动的隐含就业增长明显，中国参与全球价值链的位置有了较大提升。本文的研究结果拓展了双循环测度分析的研究视角，可为构建双循环新发展格局提供量化依据和决策参考，对我国如何实现更充分和更高质量的就业具有重要启示意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 双循环;全球价值链;投入产出分析;增加值;隐含就业

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“双循环背景下经济就业减排的协调机制及优化路径研究”(72373016)的资助

作者(Author): 宁亚东,刘馨潞,戴艳娟

参考文献(References)：

• 陈全润，许健，夏炎，等.2022.国内国际双循环的测度方法及我国双循环格局演变趋势分析[J].中国管理科学，30(1):12-19.CHEN Q R,XU J,XIA Y,et al.2022.The measurement and trend analysis of domestic and international dural circulation[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,30(1):12-19.(in Chinese)
• 戴艳娟，沈伟鹏，肖鹞飞，等.2023.中国各产业参与国内国际循环的模式及测度研究[J].政治经济学季刊，2(3):81-118.DAI Y J,SHEN W P,XIAO Y F,et al.2023.A study on the pattern and measurement of Chinese industries participation in domestic and international circulation[J].Political Economy Quarterly,2(3):81-118.(in Chinese)
• 戴艳娟，沈伟鹏.2023.国内国际双循环就业依存度的测度与分析[J].产业经济评论，(4):90-108.DAI Y J,SHEN W P.2023.The measurement and analysis of degree of labor dependence on domestic and international dual circulation[J].Review of Industrial Economics,(4):90-108.(in Chinese)
• 丁晓强，张少军.2022.中国经济双循环的测度与分析[J].经济学家，(2):74-85.DING X Q,ZHANG S J.2022.Measurement and analysis of China's economic dual circulation[J].Economist,(2):74-85.(in Chinese)
• 侯俊军，岳有福，叶家柏，等.2024.供需循环实现稳就业的双重保障效应分析[J].财贸经济，45(5):142-158.HOU J J,YUE Y F,YE J B,et al.2024.Analysis of the double guarantee effect of supply and demand circulations on employment stabilization[J].Finance & Trade Economics,45(5):142-158.(in Chinese)
• 胡钊源，靳小怡，崔烨.2021.高龄农业转移人口非农就业影响因素研究[J].系统工程理论与实践，41(3):613-624.HU Z Y,JIN X Y,CUI Y.2021.Study on influence factors of non-agricultural employment of aged people who move from rural to urban[J].Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice,41(3):613-624.(in Chinese)
• 江小涓，孟丽君.2021.内循环为主、外循环赋能与更高水平双循环——国际经验与中国实践[J].管理世界，37(1):1-18.JIANG X J,MENG L J.2021.Mainly inner circulation,outer circulation empowerment and higher level double circulation:International experience and Chinese practice[J].Journal of Management World,37(1):1-18.(in Chinese)
• 赖德胜.2021.构建新发展格局更好地促进就业[J].中国人口科学，(1):2-11,126.LAI D S.2021.Constructing a new development pattern to better promote employment[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,(1):2-11,126.(in Chinese)
• 黎峰.2021.国内国际双循环：理论框架与中国实践[J].财经研究，47(4):4-18.LI F.2021.Dual circulations of domestic and international economy:Theoretical framework and Chinese practice[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,47(4):4-18.(in Chinese)
• 李晓，刘宝琦.2024.中国经济国内国际双循环测度——基于三种GDP分解的比较分析[J].南开经济研究，(1):3-19.LI X,LIU B Q.2024.Measurement of domestic and international dual circulation of China's Economy:A comparative analysis based on three decomposition methods[J].Nankai Economic Studies,(1):3-19.(in Chinese)
• 马涛，刘仕国.2013.全球价值链下的增加值贸易核算及其影响[J].国际经济评论，(4):97-109,6.MA T,LIU S G.2013.Global value chains and statistics of trade in value added[J].International Economic Review,(4):97-109,6.(in Chinese)
• 牛猛，王振国，张亚斌.2023.中国双循环就业效应及驱动因素研究——纳入功能分工的新视角[J].国际贸易问题，(3):89-105.NIU M,WANG Z G,ZHANG Y B.2023.Study on China's employment effect embedded in dual circulation and the driving factors—A new perspective from functional specialization[J].Journal of International Trade,(3):89-105.(in Chinese)
• 王欠欠，田野.2022.中国经济双循环的测度及增长结构分解[J].经济学动态，(11):58-74.WANG Q Q,TIAN Y.2022.The measurement and structural decomposition analysis of China's dual circulation[J].Economic Perspectives,(11):58-74.(in Chinese)
• 张俊荣，田开兰，张瑜，等.2022.基于企业规模异质性的中国内外循环就业效应及影响因素探究[J].系统工程理论与实践，42(12):3151-3164.ZHANG J R,TIAN K L,ZHANG Y,et al.2022.The employment effects and determinants in China's dual circulation considering firm size heterogeneity information[J].Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice,42(12):3151-3164.(in Chinese)
• 周薪吉，袁堂军.(2024-04-26)[2025-04-13].双循环视角下的中国就业变动影响因素研究[J/OL].当代财经：1-15.https://doi.org/10.13676/j.cnki.cn36-1030/f.20240424.002.ZHOU X J,YUAN T J.(2024-04-26)[2025-04-13].Research on the influencing factors of China's employment change from the perspective of dual circulation[J/OL].Contemporary Finance and Economics:1-15.https://doi.org/10.13676/j.cnki.cn36-1030/f.20240424.002.(in Chinese)
• 朱金生，王炳轩，屈豆豆.2024a.“双循环”推动中国高质量充分就业的效应及影响因素：基于不同贸易方式的世界投入占用产出模型分析[J].世界经济研究，(8):3-15,135.ZHU J S,WANG B X,QU D D.2024a.The effect and influencing factors of dual circulation to promote high-quality full employment in China:Analysis of world input-occupancy-output model based on different modes of trade[J].World Economy Studies,(8):3-15,135.(in Chinese)
• 朱金生，屈豆豆，王振国.2024b.内外资互促、双循环联动的就业效应及影响因素研究[J].中国人口科学，38(4):3-20.ZHU J S,QU D D,WANG Z G.2024b.The employment effect of domestic-foreign capital interaction in dual circulation and its decomposition[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,38(4):3-20.(in Chinese)
• ANTRàS P.2020.Conceptual aspects of global value chains[J].The World Bank Economic Review,34(3):551-574.
• BAI S K,ZHANG B Y,NING Y D.2024.Measuring employment in global value chains based on an inter-country input-output model with multinational enterprises[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,68:148-162.
• BORIN A,MANCINI M.2015.Follow the value added:Bilateral gross export accounting[R].Rome:Bank of Italy Working Papers,No.1026.
• DAUDIN G,RIFFLART C,SCHWEISGUTH D.2011.Who produces for whom in the world economy?[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,44(4):1403-1437.
• GEREFFI G.2001.Beyond the producer-driven/buyer-driven dichotomy the evolution of global value chains in the internet era[J].IDS Bulletin,32(3):30-40.
• HORVáT P,WEBB C,YAMANO N.2020.Measuring employment in global value chains[R].Paris:OECD.
• JIANG X,MILBERG W.2013.Capturing the jobs from globalization:Trade and employment in global value chains[R].Manchester:Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper.
• JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.2012.Accounting for intermediates:Production sharing and trade in value added[J].Journal of International Economics,86(2):224-236.
• KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.2012.Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,99(1):178-189.
• KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.2014.Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J].American Economic Review,104(2):459-494.
• LIN G J,WANG F,PEI J S.2018.Global value chain perspective of US-China trade and employment[J].The World Economy,41(8):1941-1964.
• LOS B,TIMMER M P,DE VRIES G J.2015.How global are global value chains?a new approach to measure international fragmentation[J].Journal of Regional Science,55(1):66-92.
• LOS B,TIMMER M P,DE VRIES G J.2016.Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports:Comment[J].American Economic Review,106(7):1958-1966.
• MIROUDOT S.2016.Global value chains and trade in value-added:An initial assessment of the impact on jobs and productivity[R].Affiliation:OECD.
• STEHRER R.2012.Trade in value added and the valued added in trade[R].Netherlands:WIOD Working Paper,1-19.
• TIMMER M P,ERUMBAN A A,LOS B,et al.2014.Slicing up global value chains[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,28(2):99-118.
• WANG Z,WEI S J,ZHU K F.2013.Quantifying international production sharing at the bilateral and sector levels[R].Cambridge:NBER.
• WANG Z,WEI S J,YU X D.2017a.Characterizing global value chains:Production length and upstreamness[R].Cambridge:NBER.
• WANG Z,WEI S J,YU X D,et al.2017b.Measures of participation in global value chains and global business cycles[R].Cambridge:NBER.
• ZURCHER C.2018.Job creation in global value chains:An assessment for the period of 2000—2014[D].Lund:Lund University.