黄逸江

• 1:美国丹佛大学经济系
• 2:全球可持续发展研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

本文阐述的"中国绿色公共就业计划"是一个由中央政府出资、地方政府落实的公共就业保障政策,主要为了实现消除失业、实现国家目的、拉动经济等三大目标。以2019年为例,增加占GDP 1.58%的财政赤字将足够实施一个完整的中国绿色公共就业计划,从而消除2427万的城镇失业,并带来3.13%～4.55%的新增GDP,将中国2019年GDP增长率推至9.23%～10.65%的区间。同时,中国绿色公共就业计划还会带来其他重要效益,如人民(包括农民工和退伍军人)的经济安全、社会和政治的稳定、对中国模式的信心提升、对环境污染的有效治理等。由于实施该计划需每年增加约GDP 1.58%的财政赤字,本文还通过研究三个具有代表性国家(美国、希腊、中国)的体系收支余额论证中国政府赤字的可持续性和必要性。结论是:对于拥有货币主权的国家而言,真正具有违约风险的是民间企业债和个人债,而非以本国货币结算的国债。中国政府赤字不仅可持续,而且能有效稳定中国民间企业和个人的收支盈余,从而增强民间企业和个人的偿债能力、减少中国金融系统的结构性风险。

关键词(KeyWords)： 中国经济;可持续发展;公共就业;赤字;国债

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 黄逸江

参考文献(References)：

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• (1) 2427万城镇失业由国家统计局提供的5.2%的城镇调查失业率和中国4.667亿人的总城镇劳动力计算所得。
• (1)即新古典经济学（Neoclassical Economics）。
• (2)以弗里德曼的Monetarism和卢卡斯的Rational Expectation为代表。
• (3)详见笔者的另一篇文章：《转型、非过渡：由中国近代政治经济史论中国特色社会主义市场经济》。
• (1)新古典主义经济学作为西方经济学界的主流，是阐述自由市场是唯一合理的经济秩序的理论基础。新古典主义经济学不可避免地影响了中国的经济学界和一些经济政策的制定。
• (1)根据主流经济学界的观点（芝加哥学派的米尔顿·弗里德曼及其学生卢卡斯），低失业率和低通胀率是不应该同时出现的，更不该长期同时出现。
• (2)详见Li (2013）关于宁夏生态移民扶贫工程的研究。
• (1)城镇总劳动力=城镇就业人口/（1-城镇调查失业率），即：4.4247/（1-5.2%)=4.6674。
• (2)鉴于中国农村特有的土地制度，这是一个合理假设。
• (3)由于公共就业计划的平均工资低于在市场经济中就业的城镇雇员的平均工资，公共就业计划雇员的人均消费应低于在市场经济中就业的城镇雇员的人均消费。故公共就业计划雇员人均对GDP的附加值贡献应低于在市场经济中就业的城镇雇员。
• (4)由于公共就业计划的平均工资高于农村居民平均收入，公共就业计划雇员的人均消费应高于农村居民的人均消费。故公共就业计划雇员人均对GDP的附加值贡献应高于农村居民。
• (1)包括Altig、Fitzgerald和Rupert (1977),Lee (2000）以及Chaido Dritsaki和Nikolaos Dritsaki (2009）等。
• (2)每月3700元是中国农民工2018年的月均收入。2019年农民工平均工资尚未公布。
• (1)“体系收支余额”的分析方法受益于近年来前沿的货币银行学的研究成果，包括Abba Lerner的“功能性财政理论”（Functional Finance）、Alfred Innes的“信贷货币理论”（Credit Theory of Money）、Georg Knapp的“国家货币理论”（State Theory of Money）以及Mathew Forstater、Randall Wray和Stephanie Kelton的“现代货币理论”（Modern Monetary Theory）。
• (2)外国收入=本国进口支出；外国支出=本国出口收入。故：外国余额=-本国贸易余额，即外国余额为正时本国实现贸易逆差，外国余额为负时本国实现贸易顺差。
• (1)货币发行者通过发行新货币“偿还”以本国货币结算的国债，因此不可能因以本国货币结算的债务破产。
• (1)伯南克在2009年接受斯科特·佩利的采访时被问：“美联储和联邦政府花的是纳税人的钱吗？”伯南克答：“不是纳税人的钱。我们只是在电脑上改变联邦政府账户的数字让美国联邦政府花钱。”
• (1)根据《马斯特里赫特条约》（The Maastricht Treaty），欧元区国家的赤字占GDP的比例应低于3%。
• (1)特别是与中华传统文化相关的专业，如民俗学、中国历史、中国音乐、中国舞蹈、古建筑学等。