彼特·斯科特,韩嘉怡,陈旸

• 1:美国马萨诸塞州大学阿默斯特分校

摘要(Abstract)：

后凯恩斯主义宏观经济学面临以下几个挑战。第一,劳动力市场和供给侧没有在后凯恩斯主义增长理论中得到原本应有的关注。第二,虽然卢卡斯式微观经济基础(Lucas-type Microeconomic Foundations)失败了,但不应就此忽视微观经济行为。有说服力的宏观经济学理论必须认识和解决宏观经济关系与微观经济行为之间的联系,这些微观经济行为的总体又是通过宏观经济关系表现的。第三,微观经济行为,是在塑造经济行为和经济成果的制度结构内发生的。宏观经济理论必须是行为和结构主义的。

关键词(KeyWords)： 新帕西内蒂定理;成熟经济体;诱导技术变化;自需求;不稳定性;目标导向

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基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 彼特·斯科特,韩嘉怡,陈旸

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• (1)耶斯佩尔·耶斯佩松(Jesper Jespersen)提出,我的三个例子可以被打上“方法论标题”(Methodological Headings),第一个例子探讨的是“合成谬论”(Fallacy of Composition),第二个是“其他条件不变谬论”(Fallacy of Ceteris Paribus),第三个是“封闭系统分析谬论”(Fallacy of Closed System Analysis)。耶斯佩松(Jespersen,2009)、奇克(Chick,2003)和道(Dow,2002)等人对以上和其他谬误的分析做出了贡献。
• (1)针对卡尔多在1966年对新帕西内蒂定理(Neo-Pasinetti Theorem)原始构想的几处弱点,斯科特(Skott,1981)提出了自己的观点。
• (1)观察而得的企业金融行为改变通常被视为“金融化”的一部分。这一标签本身并不能说明企业改变行为的原因。戴维斯(Davis,2018)在更好地理解这一方面的道路上迈出了可喜的步伐。
• (1)希克斯(Hicks,1975:65)认为,没有任何工资系统,当被质疑之时,会被发现其之公平。……“为了避免系统被质疑”,工资系统应建立完善,这样使其受到习俗的认可。那它就成为预期之内;而预期是公平的(诚然,公平的水平较低)。
• (2)杜特也考虑了另外一个a与e成比例的版本。
• (1)为了避免误解,此处应当澄清,后凯恩斯文献中有过关于供给侧限制的讨论,例如,帕利(Palley,2002)和塞特菲尔德(Setterfield,2013)。但是卡莱茨基系文献倾向于不考虑这些限制,并且在我看来,学者对这些限制的关注远远不足。
• (1)有时,卡莱茨基式模型的支持者似乎并不会意识到,他们自己的计量经济结果否定了凯恩斯稳定性条件的长期扩张(斯科特,Skott,2012,2017a)。
• (1)设S/K=sσu I/K=a+bu此处σ为充分利用时的产出资本比例,u是利用率,且sσ> b(稳定条件)。OECD国家平均储蓄率为20 %,如果σ=0. 5,则必有b <0. 1。如果,假设b=0. 08,a=0. 015,则当s=0. 2时,利用均衡解为u=0. 75,当s=0. 22时,u=0. 5。
• (1)高度就业与高总需求呈相关性。不过,就业率并不与利用率完全相关,且利用率上升的投资正向部分效应(保持就业率不变)与就业的负向部分效应完全一致(持有恒定的利用率)。资本利用率不应该被用来衡量劳动力市场的状况。
• (2)贡献者包括塞拉诺和弗雷塔斯(Serrano and Freitas,2015)、切萨拉托(Cesaratto,2015)、阿兰(Allain,2015)、拉沃(Lavoie,2016)、斯科特(Skott,2017b,2018a)和尼克福斯(Nikiforos,2018),他们提供了相关评论。
• (1)通过出口来确保稳定带来了更多的问题。出口如何能够稳定世界经济?被认为能够稳定本国出口的外国收入又是通过什么来稳定的呢?
• (1)菲比格尔和拉沃(Fiebiger and Lavoie,2018)声称,劳动力市场的引入使“供给侧对增长和循环的解释”(A Supply-side Explanation of Growth and Cycles)成为可能。如果是针对最初的古德温模型(Goodwin Model),这种说法会有一些有效性。但如果是作为对我整合凯恩斯主义和马克思主义元素的批判,这种主张很难理解。总需求在确定周期模式、平均就业率和长期增长率方面起着关键作用。那算是供给侧对增长和循环的解释么?
• (1)准确措辞是否归于爱因斯坦,仍有存疑;见https://quoteinvestigator. com/2011/05/13/einsteinsimple/。