伊莎贝尔·奥尔蒂斯,马修·卡明斯,周建军,钟洋

• 1:国务院国资委研究中心
• 2:中建安装集团国际工程分公司

摘要(Abstract)：

这份研究报告考察了189个国家的政府支出历史和预测趋势;为确定各国政府用于调整支出的主要方式,评估了最新的国际货币基金组织国别报告;讨论了紧缩措施的负面社会影响;向预算有限的各国政府提出了重构的"华盛顿共识"和联合国"人人享有发展的共识";为加快发展、保护人权、促进包含就业和包容性增长的绿色复苏,实现可持续发展目标(SDGs),而呼吁各国政府立刻采取行动,确定财政空间。对支出预测的分析证实了全球经济危机爆发以来支出模式的两个不同阶段。在第一阶段(2008～2009年),大多数政府推出了财政刺激计划,加大了总支出。总体而言,2008～2009年,136个国家(占样本国家的70%以上)的支出增幅占GDP的比例平均为3.2%。然而,在危机的第二阶段,各国政府开始缩减刺激计划,削减支出,并将紧缩新常态制度化,预计这种情况至少会持续到2024年。财政紧缩阶段(2010～2024年)以财政调整深化的冲击为特征,而财政调整第一次发生在2010～2011年,第二次发生在2016～2017年,第三次预计将从2020年开始。预计即将到来的调整冲击将在2021年影响130个国家的GDP。其中一个关键发现是,发展中国家将受到最严重的影响:93个发展中国家预计将因此削减公共支出,而相较只有37个高收入国家将实施相关紧缩政策。对比2020～2024年和危机前的2005～2007年,我们可以进一步发现,有69个国家的政府可能正在经历过度紧缩,即将支出削减到低于危机前GDP对应水平的水平。至于受即将到来的冲击影响的人口,预测显示,到2021年紧缩将影响大约58亿人——约占全球人口的75%。对于数十亿人来说,长期就业危机和财政紧缩的持续意味着生活条件的恶化。政府如何实现财政调整?对社会有直接影响的主要调整措施有哪些?对国际货币基金组织2018～2019年161个国别报告的回顾显示,最通常考虑的调整措施包括如下方面:(1)养老金和社会保障制度改革(86个国家如此);(2)削减或限制公共部门工资总额,包括教师、卫生工作者和提供公共服务的公务员的人数和工资(80个国家如此);(3)劳动弹性化改革(79个国家如此);(4)减少或取消补贴(78个国家如此);(5)使社会援助或安全网合理化和/或进一步聚焦社会援助或安全网(77个国家如此);(6)增加累进消费税,如销售税和增值税(73个国家如此);(7)加强政府和社会资本合作(PPP)(60个国家如此);(8)将公共资产/服务私有化(59个国家如此);(9)医疗改革(33个国家如此)。与公众的看法相反,紧缩措施不只在欧洲发生。事实上,许多主要的调整措施在发展中国家最为突出。这些措施有消极的社会影响,其调整代价已经转嫁到人民身上,数以百万计的人口被迫陷入贫困,生活水平下降。与投资于强劲的复苏以给民众带来繁荣相比,支出预测显示,紧缩已成为"新常态"。此外,公共支出调整被当成特洛伊木马,诱使"华盛顿共识"进一步削减公共政策和国家福利。一旦预算减少,政府必须研究出尽可能减少公共支出、加强PPP以及扩大私营部门供给的政策,而这些政策的制定过程往往由多边开发银行推动和协助。重构的"华盛顿共识"有明显的赢家和输家,各国必须有效评估这些政策的影响,分析这些政策的受益人群。在发展需求大、不平等加剧和社会不满的情况下,全球财政巩固的倾向可能会加剧增长危机和就业危机,降低公众的支持水平。紧缩和"华盛顿共识"不必然成为"新常态"。即使在最贫穷的国家,也有其他的替代性选择。各国在联合国达成了另一项共识,即为所有人服务的发展议程。这在很大程度上取决于政府如何利用现有机会扩大财政空间。至少有8种办法来筹措资金:(1)重新分配公共支出;(2)增加税收收入;(3)为获得援助和转移支付进行游说;(4)消除非法资金流动;(5)利用财政、外汇储备;(6)通过借款或重组现有债务来管理债务;(7)采取更为宽松的宏观经济框架;(8)扩大社会保障覆盖面,增加社会保障的缴费收入。鉴于公共支出对于国家发展和实现可持续发展的重要性,各国政府和国际金融机构必须纠正紧缩政策和其他只让少数人受益的政策,并探索扩大财政空间的所有可能选择,确保充分就业,实现普惠社会保障、包容性增长、社会投资和绿色投资、人权保护和可持续发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 公共支出;财政调整;紧缩政策;重构的“华盛顿共识”;“联合国共识”

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 伊莎贝尔·奥尔蒂斯,马修·卡明斯,周建军,钟洋

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• (1)国际货币基金组织对这一份文件表示不满，该文件已从联合国儿童基金会的网站上删除，所有印刷本也已销毁。
• (1)有几点需要注意。首先，各国支出数据的范围不同。在大多数情况下，数据对象是中央和地方政府，而在一些国家，数据对象是公共部门，其中包括公共企业(public enterprises)。此外，随着更多最新信息的出现，政府总支出预测可能与本研究中使用的估计有所不同。另外，由于不同的预测假设和方法，国际货币基金组织来源的支出数据可能与国家预算报告的数据有所不同。
• (2)2024年是2019年4月版《世界经济展望》发布财政预测的最后一年。
• (1)Olivier Blanchard,Economic Counselor and Director,IMF Research Department,IMF Survey Magazine,29December,2008.
• (1)资料来源:BIS Annual Report 2009/10和BIS Annual Report 2010/11。
• (1)值得注意的是，很少有政府真正拥有国际货币基金组织的项目，国际货币基金组织在全球和国家政策辩论中的影响力主要来自其政策建议和监督任