对“新凯恩斯”动态模型的分析性批判
浅田统一郎,夏锦清
摘要(Abstract)：
在本文中,我们将对标准的"新凯恩斯"动态模型进行一个分析性批判。本文以分析方式显示标准的"新凯恩斯"动态模型产生了与经验事实相违背的矛盾现象。我们还提出了与经验事实相一致的更为传统的替代方法,这种方法被称为"旧凯恩斯"动态模型。
关键词(KeyWords)： 新凯恩斯动态模型;(非)确定性;外生扰动;旧凯恩斯动态模型;(不)稳定性;Hopf分岔;内生波动
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 浅田统一郎,夏锦清
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- (1)对于“新凯恩斯”动态模型的详细内容可以参阅Woodford(2003)、Bénassy(2007)和Galí(2008)。Romer(2006)中包括一些有用的扩展。本部分的最简单形式的公式表达来自Asada、Chiarella、Flaschel和Proa1o(2007)。类似的表达也可以参阅Flaschel、Franke和Proa1o(2008)以及Asada、Chiarella、Flaschel和Franke(2010)。
- (1)事实上,这些方程是经济主体最优化条件的对数线性近似。
- (2)可以参阅Taylor(1993)来了解泰勒规则的最原始形式。
- (3)Et代表数学中求期望的算子。
- (1)可以参阅Woodford(2003)、Bénassy(2007)、Galí(2008)以及Chiarella、Flaschel和Semmler(2013)。
- (1)参阅Gandolfo(2009,p.60)。
- (1)相关讨论可以参阅Asada、Chiarella,、Flaschel和Franke(2010),Flaschel和Schlicit(2006),Franke(2007),Romer(2006)。
- (2)差分方程系统中(不)稳定的根是指其绝对值(大)小于1,微分方程中(不)稳定的根是指其实部为(正)负。
- (3)通常,利用横截条件来合理化这种收敛到均衡点的假设。而横截条件必须得到满足,以确保代表性代理人的行为真正最佳。
- (1)可以参阅Woodford(2003)、Bénassy(2007)和Galí(2008),对于这个概念更为详细的数学处理可以参考Blanchard和Kahn(1980)。
- (1)事实上,在图1上的线是鞍点路径。
- (1)在Fuhrer(1997)、Romer(2006,chapter 6)以及Franke(2007)中有对理解这个话题有益的解释。
- (2)这样的方法与被Keynes(1936)影响的Akerlof和Shillar(2009)中的方法有相似之处。
- (1)正如我们在本部分所见到的那样,在标准的NK动态模型中,存在外生扰动对于它产生经济波动非常重要,而随机元素没有这么重要的作用。
- (1)类似于Asada、Chiarella、Flaschel和Franke(2003,2010),Chiarella、Flaschel和Franke(2005)以及Asada、Flaschel、Mouakil和Proan7(2011),本研究也采用基于旧凯恩斯传统的建模方法。
- (2)为了简化分析,在这个方程中省去了外生扰动。
- (3)日本经济的经验数据表明fyy=f″(yt)>0。
- (1)如果ρ0>0,π>0,此不等式自然成立。
- (1)后凯恩斯文献一样采纳传统的(不)稳定的概念,可以参阅Keen(200)、Asada(2001)、Charles(2008)。
- (1)参阅Asada、Chiarella、Flaschel和Franke(2003,2010,数学附录)及Gandolfo(2009,Chapter 24)。